Reference Estimate
Probabilistic Forecast (P80). This is not a traditional static bid. It is a probabilistic range forecast, meaning there is an 80% statistical confidence that final costs will stay within this limit, accounting for market volatility and unforeseen events. A single number is a lie — a range is the truth.
Cost Distribution
Three Scenarios. P50 (Optimistic) represents the median outcome under ideal conditions. P80 (Realistic) is the recommended budget ceiling with 80% confidence. Critical (Worst Case) shows the financial stress boundary if multiple risks materialize simultaneously.
Risk Impact Analysis
Base vs. Risk Exposure. The inner portion represents the theoretical base cost under ideal conditions. The outer ring shows the risk premium — the additional cost driven by project-specific factors such as site complexity, regulatory burden, and schedule pressure.
Risk Fingerprint
Risk Profile Radar. Each axis represents a distinct risk category: Direct (material/labor), Indirect (logistics/coordination), Regulatory (permits/compliance), and Climatic (weather/thermal). A larger shape indicates higher overall risk exposure. Focus Value Engineering on the most extended axes.
Timeline Intelligence (Markov Chronogram)
Stochastic Scheduling. Traditional Gantt charts failing because they are deterministic. Our Markov Chain Engine simulates 1,000 project paths, factoring in transitions between permits, foundations, and finishes. High complexity and regulatory hurdles increase the probability of 'state-stagnation' (delays).
Cost Breakdown
Base Cost = Area (m²) × Base Cost per m² (Region + Quality)
The Theoretical Minimum. This baseline represents the standard market rate for your specific region and quality level under ideal conditions, assuming zero errors, delays, or complexity premiums.
Adjusted Cost = Base × Stage × Risk × Accessibility × Regulatory × System × Schedule
The Real-World Projection. Construction is rarely ideal. This range adjusts the base cost by factoring in your specific project conditions: site logistics, regulatory hurdles, technical complexity, and schedule pressure.
Hidden Overcost Analysis
The Invisible Iceberg. These are the costs that typicaly ambush projects after construction begins. They are not 'extras' but inevitable realities driven by geography (e.g., soil, climate), thermal inefficiency gaps, and decision-making friction.
Hidden Cost = Adjusted × Geographic × Climate × Construction × Process Factors
Critical Scenario = Hidden Max × Critical Factor (1.15)
The Financial Stress Test. This is not just a worst-case scare tactic; it is a liquidity planning tool. It represents a 'Perfect Storm' where multiple high-probability risks (supply chain disruption + scope creep) materialize simultaneously.
Applied Multipliers
Your Specific Cost Drivers. A value of 1.00 is neutral. A value of 1.25 means this specific factor is adding a 25% premium to your base cost. Identifying high multipliers helps you target Value Engineering efforts.
Projected operational inefficiency (Comfort Gap) and real-time seismic hazard.